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on_forecasts_in_simulation_models [2020/02/25 14:01]
matsz created
on_forecasts_in_simulation_models [2020/03/31 10:07] (current)
matsz
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   * The second example is that of FAPRI model, where a so-called melting down meeting is organised where the modellers responsible for specific parts of the system come together with market experts. Results are discussed, parameters and assumptions changed until there is consensus. Little is known about how the process works exactly, but both examples underline the interaction between model mechanisms and ex-ante expectations of market experts.   * The second example is that of FAPRI model, where a so-called melting down meeting is organised where the modellers responsible for specific parts of the system come together with market experts. Results are discussed, parameters and assumptions changed until there is consensus. Little is known about how the process works exactly, but both examples underline the interaction between model mechanisms and ex-ante expectations of market experts.
  
-As is the case in other agencies, the CAPRI baseline is also fed by external (“expert”) forecasts, as well as by trend forecasts using data from the national ‘COCO’ and regionalized CAPREG databases (Chapters ​3.2 and 3.3). The purpose of these trend estimates is, on the one hand, to compare expert forecasts with a purely technical extrapolation of time series and, on the other hand, to provide a ‘safety net’ position in case no values from external projection are available. Usually the projections for a CAPRI baseline are a combination of expert data (e.g. from FAO, European Commission, World Bank, other research teams and even private entreprises) and simple statistical trends of data contained in the CAPRI database. ​+As is the case in other agencies, the CAPRI baseline is also fed by external (“expert”) forecasts, as well as by trend forecasts using data from the national ‘COCO’ and regionalized CAPREG databases (Chapters ​[[The Complete ​and Consistent Data Base (COCO) for the national scale]] and [[The Regionalised Data Base (CAPREG)]]). The purpose of these trend estimates is, on the one hand, to compare expert forecasts with a purely technical extrapolation of time series and, on the other hand, to provide a ‘safety net’ position in case no values from external projection are available. Usually the projections for a CAPRI baseline are a combination of expert data (e.g. from FAO, European Commission, World Bank, other research teams and even private entreprises) and simple statistical trends of data contained in the CAPRI database. ​
  
on_forecasts_in_simulation_models.txt · Last modified: 2020/03/31 10:07 by matsz