forecast_tool_captrd
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forecast_tool_captrd [2020/02/27 11:57] – [Step 4: Breaking down results from Member State to regional and farm type level] matsz | forecast_tool_captrd [2020/03/01 19:31] – [Step 4: Breaking down results from Member State to regional and farm type level] matsz | ||
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**Table 24: Example of the final output of the trends estimation task and description of the variables** | **Table 24: Example of the final output of the trends estimation task and description of the variables** | ||
+ | ^Product code^ Activity code ^ Variables | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ ^1984^…^2009^2010^2011^2012^2013^2014^2015^::: | ||
+ | ^SWHE^ SWHE^ BASM | | | | | | | | | 8337|Base year value from Build database workstep.| | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^Penalty | | | | | | | | | 0.2|" | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^Lo | | | | | | | | | 8080| Lower estimation bound.| | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ DGAgri1 | | | 8876| 8385 |8046 |8109| 8632| 8996| 9167| Projection of Aglink-Cosimo for the EU15 aggregate scaled to fit the CAPRI database.((Aglink-Cosimo model produces projections not for each EU MS, but for the EU aggregates: EU, EU " | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ TrustLevl | | | | | | | | | 3| Exogeneous value used for restricting min and max values of the support values. It is used in calculating lower and upper bounds (up and lo) of the projections.| | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ data | | | | | | | | | | | | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ BAST | | | | | | | | | 8579| Simple average of the last 3 observation years available: 2012-2014.| | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ B2000 | | | | | | | | | 7988| | | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ support | | | | | | | | | 9167| Values estimated as linear combination of Step1 and BAST (BASM) with R2 as weight. They are replaced with expert support where applicable and then scaled. They are then stored as Support1. Support is then redefined based on the Aglink-Cosimo value.((The final version of the support value at MS level (if calibration to the projections of Aglink-Cosimo takes place), is calibration value derived from DgAgri1.))| | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ support1 | | | | | | | | | 8943| (expert) support value, before introduction of Aglink-Cosimo calibration values. | | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ step1 | | | | | | | | | 8918| 1) Result of estimation of unconstrined trends| | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ step2 | | | | | | | | | 8851|2) Results of solving the trend model with constraints at MS level and with support1| | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ step3 | | | | | | | | | 8949|3) First, it is defined as results of solving trend model with constraints at MS level and with support (defined with Aglink-Cosimo value). Then, it is redifined with the results from solving this trend model with additional constraints at NUTS2 level. | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ wVarErr | | | | | | | | | 259353| Error variance. | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ CoefVarErr | | | | | | | | | 0.1| | | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ Extrap | | | | | | | | | | | | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ Longrun| | | | | | | 8553 | 8579 | 8633| | | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ Longrun1 | | | | | | | | | | | | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ P_Data |6975| …| 9061| 8614| 8078 |8139| 8810| 8789| | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ series |6975| … |9061 |8614 |8078 |8139|8810 |8789 | | ||
+ | ^ ^ ^ up | | | | | | | | | 8978 |Upper estimation bound| | ||
+ | Source: own compilation. Comments: SWHE in Product code column indicates soft wheat commodity. SWHE in Activity code indicates yield of soft wheat. The CAPRI model used for this example was calibrated to the projections of Aglink-Cosimo model. | ||
forecast_tool_captrd.txt · Last modified: 2022/11/07 10:23 by 127.0.0.1