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calibrating_the_global_trade_model [2020/03/31 10:10]
matsz [Stage I: Data preparation and balancing]
calibrating_the_global_trade_model [2020/03/31 10:10] (current)
matsz [Stage I: Data preparation and balancing]
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 Next, FAO data on the non-European countries as well as the trade flows among all of the countries (country trade blocks) accounted for in CAPRI are loaded. These FAO data together with the European data, which has already been subjected to certain adjustments as described in the previous paragraph, undergo the, so-called, data preparation step. This process is controlled by C:​\...\CAPRI\gams\arm\market1.gms file which calls the C:​\...\CAPRI\gams\arm\data_prep.gms file - specifically for this step. The data preparation step mostly refers to the base year and includes: among else, modification of GDP to fit the sum of final household expenditure,​ final government expenditure,​ gross capital formation and current account balance; import and export flows to be in line with net trade from production minus demand; scaling of demand side to fit production plus net trade; estimation of consumer prices for some countries, if missing; calculation of nutrient consumption per head and day as net of losses in distribution and households; scaling of outliers in prices etc. This step as well provides with estimation of yearly change factors beyond the base year: for prices, GDP, population, quantities and areas. Additionally,​ i) substitution elasticities (i.e., p_rhoX, where X indicates continuation of the parameter name) for bio-fuel feedstocks, feed, dairy products, sugar, table grapes, tobacco, cheese, fresh milk products, fruits, vegetables, distilled dried grains and rice for the CAPRI demand system((See section [[Market module for agricultural outputs#​Overview on the market model]] on Overview of the market model "CAPRI comprises a two stage Armington system: on the top level, the composition of total demand from imports and domestic sales is determined, as a function of the relation between the domestic price and the average import price. The lower stage determines the import shares from different origins and defines the average import price."​)),​ and ii) transformation elasticity for oil seed processing and land supply elasticities are assigned. Next, FAO data on the non-European countries as well as the trade flows among all of the countries (country trade blocks) accounted for in CAPRI are loaded. These FAO data together with the European data, which has already been subjected to certain adjustments as described in the previous paragraph, undergo the, so-called, data preparation step. This process is controlled by C:​\...\CAPRI\gams\arm\market1.gms file which calls the C:​\...\CAPRI\gams\arm\data_prep.gms file - specifically for this step. The data preparation step mostly refers to the base year and includes: among else, modification of GDP to fit the sum of final household expenditure,​ final government expenditure,​ gross capital formation and current account balance; import and export flows to be in line with net trade from production minus demand; scaling of demand side to fit production plus net trade; estimation of consumer prices for some countries, if missing; calculation of nutrient consumption per head and day as net of losses in distribution and households; scaling of outliers in prices etc. This step as well provides with estimation of yearly change factors beyond the base year: for prices, GDP, population, quantities and areas. Additionally,​ i) substitution elasticities (i.e., p_rhoX, where X indicates continuation of the parameter name) for bio-fuel feedstocks, feed, dairy products, sugar, table grapes, tobacco, cheese, fresh milk products, fruits, vegetables, distilled dried grains and rice for the CAPRI demand system((See section [[Market module for agricultural outputs#​Overview on the market model]] on Overview of the market model "CAPRI comprises a two stage Armington system: on the top level, the composition of total demand from imports and domestic sales is determined, as a function of the relation between the domestic price and the average import price. The lower stage determines the import shares from different origins and defines the average import price."​)),​ and ii) transformation elasticity for oil seed processing and land supply elasticities are assigned.
  
-Together with the data, equations of the CAPRI market module are loaded. They are described in detail in FIXME section [[Market module for agricultural outputs]]. These equations include behavioural functions for market demand including expenditure function, feed demand, blocks for dairy products, oilseeds processing and biofuels, netput functions, trade equations and balances, equations for prices and price transmission,​ functions for trade policies and for intervention stocks. There are additionally two crucial for data calibration functions: minimization of deviation of estimated values from the observed data. These two functions are described in detail later in this section. ​   ​+Together with the data, equations of the CAPRI market module are loaded. They are described in detail in section [[Market module for agricultural outputs]]. These equations include behavioural functions for market demand including expenditure function, feed demand, blocks for dairy products, oilseeds processing and biofuels, netput functions, trade equations and balances, equations for prices and price transmission,​ functions for trade policies and for intervention stocks. There are additionally two crucial for data calibration functions: minimization of deviation of estimated values from the observed data. These two functions are described in detail later in this section. ​   ​
  
 ===Data balancing=== ===Data balancing===
calibrating_the_global_trade_model.txt ยท Last modified: 2020/03/31 10:10 by matsz