baseline_generation
Differences
This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
Both sides previous revisionPrevious revisionNext revision | Previous revisionLast revisionBoth sides next revision | ||
baseline_generation [2020/05/08 12:59] – bogonosm | baseline_generation [2020/06/23 06:27] – matsz | ||
---|---|---|---|
Line 120: | Line 120: | ||
===Constraints relating to market balances and yields=== | ===Constraints relating to market balances and yields=== | ||
- | Closed market balances (CAPTRD eq. MBAL_) define the first set of constraints and state that the sum of imports (IMPT) and production (GROF) must be equal to the sum of feed (FEDM) and seed (SEDM) use, human consumption (HCOM), processing (INDM, | + | Closed market balances (CAPTRD eq. MBAL_ ) define the first set of constraints and state that the sum of imports (IMPT) and production (GROF) must be equal to the sum of feed (FEDM) and seed (SEDM) use, human consumption (HCOM), processing (INDM, |
\begin{align} | \begin{align} | ||
Line 489: | Line 489: | ||
**Figure 11: Pork production in Hungary as an example for merging medium run and long run a priori information in the CAPRI baseline approach** | **Figure 11: Pork production in Hungary as an example for merging medium run and long run a priori information in the CAPRI baseline approach** | ||
- | {{::figure11.png? | + | {{::figure_11.png? |
The example has been chosen because historical trends (and Aglink-COSIMO projections) on the one hand and long run expectations differ markedly. This is not unusual because medium run forecasts often give a stronger weight to recent production trends, often indicating a stagnating or declining production in the EU, whereas the long run studies tend to focus on the global growth of food demand in the coming decades. The simple trends (filled triangles) would evidently give unreasonable, | The example has been chosen because historical trends (and Aglink-COSIMO projections) on the one hand and long run expectations differ markedly. This is not unusual because medium run forecasts often give a stronger weight to recent production trends, often indicating a stagnating or declining production in the EU, whereas the long run studies tend to focus on the global growth of food demand in the coming decades. The simple trends (filled triangles) would evidently give unreasonable, | ||
Line 610: | Line 610: | ||
//Data balancing for the simulation year// \\ | //Data balancing for the simulation year// \\ | ||
+ | |||
Aim of data calibration for the simulation year aims at generating such quantity, price and other market values (see list below) for the simulation year that they fit the system of equations of the market module and variable and parameter lower and upper bounds, as well as remain as close as possible to the values to which they are calibrated (e.g., trends, estimated with growth rates from the base year, Aglink-COSIMO values, GLOBIOM values etc.). Thus process, basically, follows similar approach as for the base year. There are, however, a few differences. The main is that the model used for calibration is MODEL m_calMarketFin. As the model for base year calibration (MODEL m_calMarketBas), | Aim of data calibration for the simulation year aims at generating such quantity, price and other market values (see list below) for the simulation year that they fit the system of equations of the market module and variable and parameter lower and upper bounds, as well as remain as close as possible to the values to which they are calibrated (e.g., trends, estimated with growth rates from the base year, Aglink-COSIMO values, GLOBIOM values etc.). Thus process, basically, follows similar approach as for the base year. There are, however, a few differences. The main is that the model used for calibration is MODEL m_calMarketFin. As the model for base year calibration (MODEL m_calMarketBas), | ||
baseline_generation.txt · Last modified: 2022/11/07 10:23 by 127.0.0.1