CAPRI
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capri:concept:refrun [2014/06/03 16:15]
mihalyh
capri:concept:refrun [2014/06/25 11:17] (current)
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-      <P>In opposite to many other reference run approaches, CAPRI employs a Bayesian estimation+      <P> 
 +      ​In opposite to many other reference run approaches, CAPRI employs a Bayesian estimation
  
       framework to define a mutually consistent set of projection values for activity levels,       framework to define a mutually consistent set of projection values for activity levels,
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       framework which maximizes the joint posterior density for given a priori distribution       framework which maximizes the joint posterior density for given a priori distribution
  
-      of the different elements. The a priori distribution is whereever ​possible derived to from exogenous forecasts or expert information.</​P>​+      of the different elements. The a priori distribution is wherever ​possible derived to from exogenous forecasts or expert information.</​P>​
  
  
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-     <​H3>​Quality control</​H3>​+     <​H3>​Quality control ​(validation)</H3>
  
-     <​P>​Due to the NUTS 2 resolution ​with its 280 regions, ​and the high number ​of activities, outputs ​and inputs ​covered by the CAPRI modelling+     <​P>​The reference run can easily comprise several million data points, due to the detailed geographical ​resolution and to the rich set of agricultural ​activities and food commodities ​covered by the CAPRI modelling 
 +system. In order to ease the validation, results of the reference run are accessible via the Graphical User Interface, where several reporting tables aggregate over activities, commodities and countries.
  
-     system, the references comprises several Mio numbersTherefore, aggregates over activities (single cereals aggregated to all cereals)+     With the help of the GUIanalysts can compare systematically ​the subsequent steps of the baseline procedure.</P>
  
-     and products, and over countries to EU15, EU10 etc. are defined and reported in tables accessible via the Graphical user interface. 
  
-     Those tables compare systematically the different inputs (trend estimate, policy shift, estimation results from the different steps).</​P>​ 
  
- +     <​P>​Nevertheless,​ checking results for plausibility remains a challenge. An interesting ​comparison of the methdology between the reference
- +
-     <​P>​Nevertheless,​ checking results for plausibility remains a challenge. An interested ​comparison of the methdology between the reference+
  
      run exercise for the OECD/FAO AGLINK-COSIMO model with an estimated input of 20 person months and the CAPRI reference run      run exercise for the OECD/FAO AGLINK-COSIMO model with an estimated input of 20 person months and the CAPRI reference run
   
 
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