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capri:concept:refrun [2011/04/11 08:37] – 131.220.212.14 | capri:concept:refrun [2014/06/03 13:15] – mihalyh | ||
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from global to regional scale for 8-10 year time horizon, at the current legislation. | from global to regional scale for 8-10 year time horizon, at the current legislation. | ||
- | It integrates agricultural market projections from other insitutions | + | It integrates agricultural market projections from other institutions |
- | Unique for CAPRI are regional resolution below the national level for EU27 at the level of | + | Unique for CAPRI is the regional resolution below the national level for EU27 at the level of |
- | NUTS 2 regions, and the Bayesian methodology applied.</ | + | NUTS 2 regions |
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are calibrated to results of the reference run.</ | are calibrated to results of the reference run.</ | ||
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framework which maximizes the joint posterior density for given a priori distribution | framework which maximizes the joint posterior density for given a priori distribution | ||
- | of the different elements.</ | + | of the different elements. The a priori distribution is whereever possible derived to from exogenous forecasts or expert information.</P> |
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- | long terms are projected. Using "no change" | + | long term trends |
between the base year value and the trend estimate is calculated, using R squared | between the base year value and the trend estimate is calculated, using R squared | ||
- | as weight for the trend estimate.</ | + | as weight for the trend estimate. The |
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- | by the relative effect of implementing already decided upon changes in agricultural policies in the base | + | |
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- | year - so-called " | + | |
resulting estimates along with the estimation error of the trend deliver a priori distributions | resulting estimates along with the estimation error of the trend deliver a priori distributions | ||
for all items in the estimation framework.</ | for all items in the estimation framework.</ | ||
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- | run exercise for the OECD/FAO AGLINK-COSIMA | + | run exercise for the OECD/FAO AGLINK-COSIMO |
with an estimated inputs of about 2 person months is reported by <A HREF=http:// | with an estimated inputs of about 2 person months is reported by <A HREF=http:// | ||
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+ | The CAPRI baseline is regularly calibrated to the mid-term commodity outlook of the European Commission. More on the technical and institutional aspects can be found in the following JRC reports: <br> | ||
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