CAPRI
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capri:concept:refrun [2011/04/11 11:37]
131.220.212.14
capri:concept:refrun [2014/06/03 16:15]
mihalyh
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       from global to regional scale for 8-10 year time horizon, at the current legislation.       from global to regional scale for 8-10 year time horizon, at the current legislation.
  
-      It integrates agricultural market projections from other insitutions ​as FAPRI, FAO and DG-AGRI.+      It integrates agricultural market projections from other institutions ​as OECD, FAPRI, FAO and DG-AGRI.
  
-      Unique for CAPRI are regional resolution below the national level for EU27 at the level of+      Unique for CAPRI is the regional resolution below the national level for EU27 at the level of
  
-      NUTS 2 regions, and the Bayesian methodology applied.</​P>​+      NUTS 2 regions ​and farm types inside NUTS 2 region, and the Bayesian methodology applied.</​P>​
  
  
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       are calibrated to results of the reference run.</​P>​       are calibrated to results of the reference run.</​P>​
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       framework which maximizes the joint posterior density for given a priori distribution       framework which maximizes the joint posterior density for given a priori distribution
  
-      of the different elements.</​P>​+      of the different elements. The a priori distribution is whereever possible derived to from exogenous forecasts or expert information.</P>
  
  
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       <​P>​The a priori distributions are derived from two different sources. For all elements,       <​P>​The a priori distributions are derived from two different sources. For all elements,
  
-      long terms are projected. Using "no change"​ as the zero hypothesis, a weighted average+      long term trends ​are projected. Using "no change"​ as the zero hypothesis, a weighted average
  
       between the base year value and the trend estimate is calculated, using R squared       between the base year value and the trend estimate is calculated, using R squared
  
-      as weight for the trend estimate.</​P>​ +      as weight for the trend estimate. The
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-      <​P>​The resulting independent projections are then corrected +
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-      by the relative effect of implementing already decided upon changes in agricultural policies in the base +
- +
-      year - so-called "​policy shifts"​. These effects are derived from a simulation with the full modelling system. The+
  
       resulting estimates along with the estimation error of the trend deliver a priori distributions       resulting estimates along with the estimation error of the trend deliver a priori distributions
  
       for all items in the estimation framework.</​P>​       for all items in the estimation framework.</​P>​
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      <​H3>​Quality control</​H3>​      <​H3>​Quality control</​H3>​
  
-     <​P>​Due to the NUTS 2 resolution with its 250 regions, and the high number of activities, outputs and inputs covered by the CAPRI modelling+     <​P>​Due to the NUTS 2 resolution with its 280 regions, and the high number of activities, outputs and inputs covered by the CAPRI modelling
  
      ​system,​ the references comprises several Mio numbers. Therefore, aggregates over activities (single cereals aggregated to all cereals)      ​system,​ the references comprises several Mio numbers. Therefore, aggregates over activities (single cereals aggregated to all cereals)
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      <​P>​Nevertheless,​ checking results for plausibility remains a challenge. An interested comparison of the methdology between the reference      <​P>​Nevertheless,​ checking results for plausibility remains a challenge. An interested comparison of the methdology between the reference
  
-     run exercise for the OECD/FAO AGLINK-COSIMA ​model with an estimated input of 20 person months and the CAPRI reference run+     run exercise for the OECD/FAO AGLINK-COSIMO ​model with an estimated input of 20 person months and the CAPRI reference run
  
      with an estimated inputs of about 2 person months is reported by <A HREF=http://​purl.umn.edu/​44120>​Adenauer 2008</​A>​.</​P>​      with an estimated inputs of about 2 person months is reported by <A HREF=http://​purl.umn.edu/​44120>​Adenauer 2008</​A>​.</​P>​
  
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 + <​H3>​Calibration to the EC mid-term market outlook</​H3>​
 +
 + The CAPRI baseline is regularly calibrated to the mid-term commodity outlook of the European Commission. More on the technical and institutional aspects can be found in the following JRC reports: <br>
 +
 + <​I><​a HREF="​https://​ec.europa.eu/​jrc/​en/​publication/​calibrating-capri-and-esim-models"​ class="​intext">​Calibrating CAPRI to the mid-term commodity outlook of the EC</​a></​I> ​
 +
 +  <br>
 +  ​
 + <​I><​a HREF="​http://​ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/​publications/​pub.cfm?​id=4879"​ class="​intext">​Background information on the baseline construction process</​a></​I> ​
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