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capri:concept:refrun [2011/04/11 08:37] – 131.220.212.14 | capri:concept:refrun [2023/06/02 09:36] – [Calibration to the EC mid-term market outlook] gocht | ||
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- | < | + | ===== Reference run ===== |
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+ | ==== Overview ==== | ||
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- | < | + | ==== Methodology ==== |
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+ | ==== Quality control (validation) ==== | ||
+ | The reference run can easily comprise several million data points, due to the detailed geographical resolution and to the rich set of agricultural activities and food commodities covered by the CAPRI modelling system. In order to ease the validation, results of the reference run are accessible via the Graphical User Interface, where several reporting tables aggregate over activities, commodities and countries. With the help of the GUI, analysts can compare systematically the subsequent steps of the baseline procedure. | ||
+ | Nevertheless, | ||
+ | ==== Calibration to the EC mid-term market outlook ==== | ||
+ | The CAPRI baseline is regularly calibrated to the mid-term commodity outlook of the European Commission. More on the technical and institutional aspects can be found in the following JRC reports:\\ // | ||
- | < | + | ==== More information ==== |
+ | Witzke H.P. and Adenaeuer M.:\\ | ||
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- | + | Last Updated: | |
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- | with CAPRI. It reflects the most probable development in agricultural markets | + | |
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- | from global to regional scale for 8-10 year time horizon, at the current legislation. | + | |
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- | It integrates agricultural market projections from other insitutions as FAPRI, FAO and DG-AGRI. | + | |
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- | Unique for CAPRI are regional resolution below the national level for EU27 at the level of | + | |
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- | NUTS 2 regions, and the Bayesian methodology applied.</ | + | |
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- | are calibrated to results of the reference run.</ | + | |
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- | <P>In opposite to many other reference run approaches, CAPRI employs a Bayesian estimation | + | |
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- | framework to define a mutually consistent set of projection values for activity levels, | + | |
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- | yields, production, feed and processing demand, human consumption, | + | |
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- | all major equations from the supply and market modules are defined as in an optimization | + | |
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- | framework which maximizes the joint posterior density for given a priori distribution | + | |
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- | of the different elements.</ | + | |
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- | long terms are projected. Using "no change" | + | |
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- | between the base year value and the trend estimate is calculated, using R squared | + | |
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- | as weight for the trend estimate.</ | + | |
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- | by the relative effect of implementing already decided upon changes in agricultural policies in the base | + | |
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- | year - so-called " | + | |
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- | resulting estimates along with the estimation error of the trend deliver a priori distributions | + | |
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- | for all items in the estimation framework.</ | + | |
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- | <P>In a first step, the estimation is solved for these trend support, indepedently for each country. Afterwards, results are aggregated to | + | |
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- | EU. The projections of other instutions are then added, and replace where available the supports based on trends. | + | |
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- | If the projections are only reporting values for the EU and not for individual countries, | + | |
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- | the country results from the first steps are used to distributed the EU estimate. The standard errors for the there projections, | + | |
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- | especially for those provided by DG-AGRI, is set rather narrow, ensuring that the values are recovered as long as they do not violate | + | |
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- | the consistency restrictions.</ | + | |
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- | down in a similar framework to NUTS 2 level, and from there to farm type groups.</ | + | |
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- | and products, and over countries to EU15, EU10 etc. are defined and reported in tables accessible via the Graphical user interface. | + | |
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- | Those tables compare systematically the different inputs (trend estimate, policy shift, estimation results from the different steps).</ | + | |
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- | run exercise for the OECD/FAO AGLINK-COSIMA model with an estimated input of 20 person months and the CAPRI reference run | + | |
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- | with an estimated inputs of about 2 person months is reported by <A HREF=http:// | + | |
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- | <font size=1>Last Updated: | + | |
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