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capri:concept:refrun [2011/04/11 08:37] – 131.220.212.14 | capri:concept:refrun [2011/04/11 08:37] – 131.220.212.14 | ||
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+ | <TABLE padding=" | ||
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+ | with CAPRI. It reflects the most probable development in agricultural markets | ||
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+ | from global to regional scale for 8-10 year time horizon, at the current legislation. | ||
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+ | It integrates agricultural market projections from other insitutions as FAPRI, FAO and DG-AGRI. | ||
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+ | Unique for CAPRI are regional resolution below the national level for EU27 at the level of | ||
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+ | NUTS 2 regions, and the Bayesian methodology applied.</ | ||
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+ | are calibrated to results of the reference run.</ | ||
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+ | <P>In opposite to many other reference run approaches, CAPRI employs a Bayesian estimation | ||
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+ | framework to define a mutually consistent set of projection values for activity levels, | ||
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+ | yields, production, feed and processing demand, human consumption, | ||
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+ | all major equations from the supply and market modules are defined as in an optimization | ||
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+ | framework which maximizes the joint posterior density for given a priori distribution | ||
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+ | of the different elements.</ | ||
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+ | </TD> | ||
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+ | long terms are projected. Using "no change" | ||
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+ | between the base year value and the trend estimate is calculated, using R squared | ||
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+ | as weight for the trend estimate.</ | ||
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+ | by the relative effect of implementing already decided upon changes in agricultural policies in the base | ||
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+ | year - so-called " | ||
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+ | resulting estimates along with the estimation error of the trend deliver a priori distributions | ||
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+ | for all items in the estimation framework.</ | ||
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+ | <P>In a first step, the estimation is solved for these trend support, indepedently for each country. Afterwards, results are aggregated to | ||
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+ | EU. The projections of other instutions are then added, and replace where available the supports based on trends. | ||
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+ | If the projections are only reporting values for the EU and not for individual countries, | ||
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+ | the country results from the first steps are used to distributed the EU estimate. The standard errors for the there projections, | ||
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+ | especially for those provided by DG-AGRI, is set rather narrow, ensuring that the values are recovered as long as they do not violate | ||
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+ | the consistency restrictions.</ | ||
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+ | down in a similar framework to NUTS 2 level, and from there to farm type groups.</ | ||
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+ | </TD> | ||
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+ | and products, and over countries to EU15, EU10 etc. are defined and reported in tables accessible via the Graphical user interface. | ||
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+ | Those tables compare systematically the different inputs (trend estimate, policy shift, estimation results from the different steps).</ | ||
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+ | run exercise for the OECD/FAO AGLINK-COSIMA model with an estimated input of 20 person months and the CAPRI reference run | ||
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+ | with an estimated inputs of about 2 person months is reported by <A HREF=http:// | ||
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+ | <font size=1> | ||
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